Get the picks
live · re-scored after the last draw · uk · euromillions

A probability cloud for EuroMillions.

Eight models compute their picks after every draw, benchmarked against 1.9 million simulated tickets and sealed with a fingerprint before the numbers are drawn. Luck is the referee, the scoreboard is public, and the leader's pick is free.

1,980 draws since 20048 models1,880 walk-forward draws18+ · no tickets sold
SIMULATED TICKETS
HITS EXPECTED BY CHANCE
CURRENT LEADER
EST. JACKPOT
Model arena · walk-forward

Eight models. One referee: luck.

Every model picked each of the last 1,880 draws using only the draws before it. The score is correct numbers; the delta is against pure chance (1,614.6 expected). Inside the band means no signal — which is what the mathematics predicts.

Cumulative correct numbers · shaded = luck band 5–95%

Per draw · chance = 0.86

A bell curve above Monte Carlo samples
Mathematics

The luck band is the product.

A random line expects the same hits every draw. Over 1,880 draws that expectation is exact, and 1,000 simulated players show how far chance alone wanders. A model only means something outside that band. Ours don't. We publish that.

E[hits] = 5·(5/50) + 2·(2/12) = 0.833 // per draw, 1–12 era
Σ E[hits] over 1,880 draws = 1,614.6 // era-aware
P(jackpot, one line) = 1 / 139,838,160
Compute · after every draw

No human in the loop.

After each official result the cluster ingests the draw, re-scores all eight models across the whole history, re-runs the luck simulation, writes next-draw picks to an append-only ledger and publishes the hash.

Isometric compute tiles
01 · INGEST1,980 draws2004 → now, era-aware Lucky Stars.
02 · SCORE62 × 8 × 1,880Every number, every model, every draw.
03 · SIMULATE1,000 playersMonte Carlo luck band per draw.
04 · SEALSHA-256Time-stamped before the draw; re-hash it yourself.
Sealed ledger

Picks for the next draw

The leader's pick is open. Seven are sealed on the page and open in your inbox — free during launch, sent before every draw.

for_draw · made_at UK · sha256
Founding members

Full access at launch. Launch price for life.

At launch, all eight picks, the ledger, per-model alerts and the API become a subscription. Founding members keep the launch price. Nothing is charged today.

£4.99
per month · cancel anytime
  • All eight picks before every draw
  • Ledger & arena
  • Email alerts per model
£39
per year · two months free
  • Everything monthly
  • Launch price for life
  • Read-only ledger API

Straight answers

Can a model predict the lottery?

No. EuroMillions is random; every ball has the same chance every time. Any model — ours included — scores like luck in the long run, and the arena says so. Probabilica is honest computation: models publish, a machine counts, you see exactly how far "AI predictions" get against chance.

Then what am I paying for?

Structure and sport: eight published methods, an unedited arena, alerts before each draw, and a ledger you can verify. Nothing here improves your odds, and we will never claim it does.

Is this a lottery or a betting site?

No. We sell no tickets and take no bets. In the UK, EuroMillions is run by Allwyn under a Gambling Commission licence — play only through the National Lottery. Probabilica is independent.

Who runs it?

Gerd sp. z o.o., a software studio in Warsaw. Model names — Tally, Gap, Drift, Pulse, Level, Nexus, Council, Echo — are labels for algorithms, not people.